What is Positive EV Sports Betting Strategy? Making Money Explained
Learn how positive expected value sports betting strategy works in this video. Useful links are shared below…
The Betting Strategy That Got Me Banned: https://youtu.be/_qofMbvaoIY
OddsMonkey (UK) – https://bit.ly/3r55vkb
OddsJam – https://bit.ly/3Em7oje
EV Calculator – https://www.bettingpros.com/expected-value-calculator/
00:24 What is a positive EV betting strategy?
00:51 How to calculate EV in sports betting
02:46 Making money with expected values in sports betting
03:18 Example of plus EV betting strategy compared
04:57 Why arbitrage betting isn’t as effective
05:25 The advantages of positive EV betting strategy
06:36 How to enhance profits and reduce risk
07:02 Where can you find plus EV bets?
07:51 Option 1
08:26 Option 2
This video is for informational purposes only explaining positive expected value betting strategy. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes, always do your own due diligence and behave responsibly. Some links within this description are affiliate links. If you click on one of them, I may receive a small commission. Thanks for watching.
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For more sports betting tips, subscribe to Caan Berry Pro Trader: https://www.youtube.com/user/caanberry
Is this the same as what they call value betting?
I have been working on a ev tool that finds and tracks bets. I find bets between 0.1% ev and 20% on wide outsiders. What range would you say is a good place to sit or would you bet on all just with various bet amounts based on bank roll and the ev % which is what I have been doing. Is there a rule you follow?
I still dont get where you got the win probability from
How do you find the probability
Over 1.5 on Sportsbook
Under 2.5 on Exchange
Cashout whit a little loss on the Exchange in case of over 1.5
Easy
Does this also work with brokers?
You did a video told us that bet 365 is fraud and will got you banned for 1 year before ! 😂
Sat and watched like 15 greyhound races now with betfair exchange and bet 365 and not once have I seen better odds on the sportsbook (bet 365) does this still work? did something change in the last year or so?
Still confused
Do you have a video on how not to get limited so quick? For arbing ALSO which bookies still have half decent limits after being limited? thank you
You’re a good guy! Love your videos! Yes, positive EV betting is a great way to get an edge on sportsbooks. So many newbie sports bettors don’t even realize just how easy it is to find positive EV betting opportunities on sportsbooks.
Also, shopping for the best prices when betting on sports is a good practice too. That 10 points on odds can really add up over time.
i don’t understand how this arbitrage and Plus ev betting community doesn’t get more views on videos.
so basically you need some payed tool to detect EV betting opportunities….
You can try the opposite in order to minimize the short term losses, bet on big efficient leagues
That " odds discrepancy " would last less than 1 second.
Is a nice betting strategy but bookers doesn’t favor we Africans
Are you saying positive EV bets are better than free money by arbitrage ?
The win probability percentage is wrong?
I don’t get how u get the probability of it happening, like if it was Man U vs Man City, how do you know the probability?
Why do sports books care if you arbitrage? Don’t they take a rake or commission anyway? People are going to bet on side a and side b anyway who cares if it’s you
Most bookies have similar odds , they most likely work together. Yeah , once every blue moon you can find some kind of mismatch, but it’s very rare.
How did you get 27.4%
sure, pinnacle and lasbet
How do you know the win probability? The 27.4%.
If you have a 30% probability of win or less do you still bet on it if it’s EV value is over 5%
I have been a successful arbitrage player for over a year but I will have to switch to value betting since I got restricted by arbitrage betting. I’m unsure about one thing though, let’s take the example of the 3.00 and 1.8 odds. Of course these are profitable odds but I don’t understand how we know that 3.00 is the profitable of the 2. Now this might sound dumb because the odd is just higher, but when both teams are very defensive for example the 1.8 odd would win many more times no? With arbitraging it wouldn’t matter which of the 2 odds you choose because you cover all but I do not understand how to pick the wrongly priced odd….
Você caiu do céu foi um achado de ouro. Feliz por ter encontrado o teu canal aqui do Brasil. Maratonado teus vídeos. São excelentes.
Any tips fo maintaining edge on exchanges? Is it even possible xD
Coral banned me after 1 bet lol ( a low quality market)
One thing like arbitrage can we do positive ev count by different platforms too or it must be on one platform?
You seem to have no idea what you’re talking about, just copy paste like all the other yt videos. With arbitrage you can bet all you own, with positive ev betting you can bet max 5% of your bankroll with a 50% chance of winning. Now do the math
Essentially we don’t need the calculators just find Bets At higher odds then the exchange?
ur all videos unnecessarily with fast explanations tempo
its not helping non-english native speaking people
How to get the app
Hi I’m a football fan and I generally break even or make a small profit over the course of a season. I’m trying to improve my profit margins and a lot of what you say makes sense. I like your videos but can you explain your motivation behind sharing your strategies?
There seems to be one big issue with all this: bookmakers will immediately ban you (or severely limit you) from gambling with them again once they find out you understand value. You don’t even have to make huge amounts of bets. In fact, one bet sometimes will already put you in their ‘problem bettor’ category. There are a few bookies that will allow you to win in the long run, but these places, mostly exchanges (betfair, betdaq, etc.) rather than regular bookies, are full of people that understand shit, so your competing against other pro’s (and even companies), lowering your chances of making a living out of it. Personally, I know if they let me play against them, they are bound to be screwed, but they don’t let me! It’s an unfair game played by greedy companies that take advantage of dumb and vulnerable people.
What’s your experience?
So what if winning implied odds are less then the ev play odds jam is recommending.For instances using nba props player x has to get 12.5 pts the wager is +110 thats around, 55% you cross reference his stats on cash props his season and trends are showing that his hit percentage is 42% wouldnt that be a negative bet? Or like you said you weigh the over/under to see if its a ev play? .
Hello please does anyone know if I can use Poisson Distribution to calculate for EV betting?
The thing I don’t understand is the win probability, if you are betting on over/under 2.5 goals surely it isn’t a 50/50 it depends on who’s playing?
But it takes your 2% on betfair
I’ll stick with both teams to score for now🔥
Now the problem is how to get my bookie to accept my bets 😂
I’ve been using your betFred "goals galore bonus" scheme….
First four bets all won, banking me 1600 quid for 210 quid staked…
Since then eight further bets, all of 50 quid have failed….
But five were by only one of the eight teams failing to score…
I know if I keep doing the schoolwork I’ll profit in the long run…
What betting exchange is available in Africa?
Mate sorry for spamming this on your videos but you need to do a video on this to highlight this to people i dont want more people getting scammed.
On william hill they have a lot of double odds offers for exsmple kane to score bayern to win by 2 was 7/4 now 7/2 but if you put these in the bet builder yourself its generally closer to the 7/2 than the supposed 7/4.
This tactic is used across all sports the starting prices are lnowhere bear as low as the grnuine price is its a con.
Whats made me make this post is todays offer paul nichols to have a winner at Cheltenham today max bet a fivet 5/4 doubked to 5/2 so i stupidly had the fiver before looking at the cards and he had 2 runners a 5/1 and a 28/1 shot so obviously a terrible offer.
Then the 28/1 is announced as a non runner and their still advertising the bet and taking people’s money for half the price the horse is running at.
Disgusting
I’m new to this and trying to learn. But the thing I don’t understand is for example if the bet is under/ over goals. Example u/o 5,5 goals. Is it rly 50% chance?
I need more examples on calculating the win probability
Any tips on how to find +EV bets? I’m just getting started and I want to put into practice all this before I pay a subscription service. I’m currently manually comparing sportsbooks odds to betting exchanges to find misprices, but it takes a lot of time to find mispricings. Please any tips would help!
Here’s a positive EV betting strategy in action: https://youtu.be/_qofMbvaoIY
Hi Caan, I live in the Netherlands so would you advise to use Oddsjam, Oddsmonkey or maybe some other service?